Florida State will start the season No. 3 in the AP Top 25.

The goal of the AP preseason Top 25 is not necessarily to predict the outcome of the season as much as it is to give a snapshot of consensus heading into it. The voters take an educated guess and then go where results take them.

Still, comparing the preseason poll with the final rankings in previous years can give some idea of how much change to expect. The AP analyzed the last 10 seasons of polls (2007-16), comparing the preseason rankings with the final Top 25.

From 2007-16 on average:

_ 15.4 teams started ranked and finished ranked (61.6 percent). Average movement for those teams was 6.34 places in either direction.

_ 8.0 teams started ranked top 10 and finished ranked (80 percent).

_ 5.4 teams started ranked top and finished ranked top 10 (54 percent).

_ 1.9 teams started unranked and finished ranked top 10.

 

From 2007-16:

Teams ranked in the top eight in the preseason poll finished the season ranked 75 percent of the time.

Teams ranked nine of lower in the preseason poll finished the season ranked 55 percent of the time.

 

90 percent of preseason No. 1 teams finished the season ranked (Exception _ USC in 2012).

100 percent of No. 2 teams finished the season ranked.

90 percent of No. 3 teams finished the season ranked (Exception _ Oklahoma in 2009).

80 percent of No. 4 teams finished the season ranked.

80 percent of No. 5 teams finished the season ranked.

90 percent of No. 6 teams finished the season ranked (Exception _ Auburn in 2015).

90 percent of No. 7 teams finished the season ranked (Exception _ LSU in 2007).

80 percent of No. 8 teams finished the season ranked.

50 percent of No. 9 teams finished the season ranked.

50 percent of No. 10 teams finished the season ranked.

70 percent of No. 11 teams finished the season ranked.

60 percent of No. 12 teams finished the season ranked.

30 percent of No. 13 teams finished the season ranked.

70 percent of No. 14 teams finished the season ranked.

50 percent of No. 15 teams finished the season ranked.

40 percent of No. 16 teams finished the season ranked.

40 percent of No. 17 teams finished the season ranked.

30 percent of No. 18 teams finished the season ranked.

50 percent of No. 19 teams finished the season ranked.

50 percent of No. 20 teams finished the season ranked.

60 percent of No. 21 teams finished the season ranked.

40 percent of No. 22 teams finished the season ranked.

30 percent of No. 23 teams finished the season ranked.

60 percent of No. 24 teams finished the season ranked.

40 percent of No. 25 teams finished the season ranked.

 

YEAR-BY-YEAR

 

2016

14 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 6.14 spots in any direction.

Largest move up No. 3 USC plus-17

Largest move down No. 22 Tennessee minus-13

Direct hit _ Ohio State started and finished No. 6.

 

Playoff teams

Alabama started 1, finished 2.

Clemson started 2, finished 1.

Ohio State started 6, finished 6.

Washington started 14, finished 4.

 

9 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

6 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked in the top 10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ preseason No. 10 Notre Dame

 

11 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

2 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 7 Penn State, No. 9 Wisconsin).

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2015

15 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 6.06 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 3 Stanford plus-18

Largest move down _ No. 19 Oregon minus-12

Direct hit _ Notre Dame started and finished No. 11

 

Playoff teams

Alabama started 3, finished 1.

Clemson started 12, finished 2.

Oklahoma started 19, finished 5.

Michigan State started 5, finished 6.

 

7 teams started ranked in the top-10, finished ranked.

6 teams started ranked in the top-10, finished in top 10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ preseason No. 6 Auburn.

 

10 teams that started unranked, finished ranked.

2 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 8 Houston, No. 9 Iowa).

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2014

16 teams started ranked, finished ranked

Average movement for those teams _ 4.06 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 14 Missouri plus-10

Largest move down _ No. 22 Auburn minus-16.

Direct hit _ none

 

Playoff teams

Ohio State started 5, finished 1.

Oregon started 3, finished 2.

Alabama started 2, finished 3.

Florida State started 1, finished 5.

 

8 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

7 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 4 Oklahoma.

 

9 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

2 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 3 TCU, No. 8 Georgia Tech)

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2013

16 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 5.68 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 1 Florida State plus-10; No. 6 Oklahoma plus-10.

Largest move down _ No. 18 Texas A&M minus-11.

Direct hit _ No. 8 Clemson.

  

BCS championship game teams

Florida State started 11, finished 1.

Auburn started unranked, finished 2.

 

8 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

4 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No.  5 Georgia.

  

9 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

4 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Michigan State, No. 5 Missouri, No. 10 UCF).

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2012

17 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 7.88 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 3 Ohio State plus-15

Largest move down _ No. 24 Michigan minus-16.

Direct hit _ none

     

BCS championship game teams

Alabama started 2, finished 1.

Notre Dame started unranked, finished No. 4.

 

8 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

5 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 1 USC.

     

8 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

2 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 6 Texas A&M).

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2011

18 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 6.27 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 6 USC plus-19.

Largest move down _ No. 23 Florida State minus-17.

Direct hits _ No. 7 Stanford, No. 14 TCU, No. 19 Georgia.

     

BCS championship game teams

Alabama started No. 2, finished No. 1.

LSU started No 4, finished No. 2.

 

9 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

6 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 8 Texas A&M.

     

7 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

0 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10.

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2010

13 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 7.46 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 1 Auburn plus-21.

Largest move down _ No. 200 Nebraska minus-12.

Direct hit _ none.

 

BCS championship game teams

Auburn started No. 22, finished No. 1.

Oregon started No. 11, finished No. 3.

    

7 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

5 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 4 Florida.

     

12 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

1 team started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 4 Stanford).

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2009

17 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 6.35 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 7 Iowa plus-15.

Largest move down _ No. 22 USC minus-18.

Direct hits _ No. 2 Texas, No. 9 Penn State.

     

BCS championship game teams

Alabama started No. 5, finished No. 1.

Texas started No. 2, finished No. 2.

 

8 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

5 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 3 Oklahoma.

     

8 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

1 team started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 8 Cincinnati).

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2008

14 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 8 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 6 Alabama plus-18.

Largest move down _ No. 23 West Virginia minus-15.

Direct hits _ No. 3 USC; No. 12 Texas Tech.

     

BCS championship game teams

Florida started No. 5, finished No. 1.

Oklahoma started No. 4, finished No. 5.

 

7 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

4 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10.

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 7 LSU.

     

11 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

2 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 2 Utah, No. 7 TCU).

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2007

14 teams started ranked, finished ranked.

Average movement for those teams _ 5.5 spots in either direction.

Largest move up _ No. 2 Georgia plus-11.

Largest move down _ No. 24 Wisconsin minus-17.

Direct hits _ No. 8 Oklahoma; No. 9 Virginia Tech.

     

BCS championship game teams

LSU started No. 2, finished No. 1.

Ohio State started No. 11, finished No. 5.

 

9 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished ranked.

6 teams started ranked in the top 10, finished in the top-10 (*Texas and Boston College tied for 10th in final poll).

Best preseason ranking to finish unranked _ No. 10 Louisville.

     

11 teams started unranked, finished ranked.

3 teams started unranked, finished in the top 10 (No. 4 Missouri, No. 7 Kansas, No. 10 Boston College).

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Follow Ralph D. Russo at www.Twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP